The summer is an extremely active period for fantasy football, with tons of news pouring in from various sources as players prepare for the upcoming season. While this is typically associated with variations in redraft ADP, it is perhaps even more impactful in dynasty, where windows to acquire players can completely shut if you don't move at the right time.
In our trade deadline piece, we recommended you trade for players such as Tee Higgins (WR16 at the time) and Gabriel Davis (WR65). Both are massive wins that underline the theory noted above. Here is who we are buying as we enter the summer:
*Market prices noted below are based on FFPC Superflex Dynasty ADP
D.J. Moore -- ETR WR7, ADP WR13
Moore has been one of the most consistent WRs in fantasy football the past three seasons, playing in at least 15 games each year and going over 1,100 yards receiving -- with over 85 receptions in two of those seasons. He has managed to do this with the following quarterbacks:
- Cam Newton
- Kyle Allen
- Will Grier
- Teddy Bridgewater
- P.J. Walker
- Sam Darnold
The rub here is that Darnold is back for more in 2022 -- with third-round pick Matt Corral as the next man up -- but Moore averaged 9.9 targets per game in 12 contests with Darnold versus just 8.6 in his other 35 games the past three years. He just turned 25 in April and has already signed a three-year, $62 million extension. Just simply seeing some better TD variance (12 total the past three years) would make this price a steal.
Zach Wilson -- ETR QB12, ADP QB18
There has been a decent amount of bias against Wilson from the moment he was drafted. Despite going second overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, Wilson was selected somewhere in between Justin Fields and Mac Jones in rookie drafts. Now he is going basically back-to-back with Jones in Superflex startups, and well after Fields -- who also did not look good as a rookie. Wilson looked better down the stretch of his rookie year than at the start, but he also ran more, which is critical for fantasy.
Weeks 1-7: 8 carries, 22 yards, 0 TDs
Weeks 12-18: 21 carries, 163 yards, 4 TDs
In addition to more rushing, the Jets went out and added more weapons for Wilson in the draft. They drafted Garrett Wilson 10th overall, and added both Breece Hall and Jeremy Ruckert on Day 2. They bolstered the offensive line through free agency. There is obviously still bust potential given Wilson's overall first season, but this is a noted discount for the draft capital and ceiling. The Jets are offering him every opportunity to succeed, and a few good camp reports will push Wilson up the board.
Nick Chubb -- ETR RB10, ADP RB18
It isn't every day you'll see us champion a RB acquisition in dynasty, but Chubb is the guy to get if you are looking to do so. He has been remarkably consistent, averaging over five yards per carry in each season and staying reasonably healthy. Now Cleveland gets a massive QB upgrade with the Deshaun Watson acquisition. Watson can run the ball in himself a bit, but the overall quality of the offense is leaps and bounds better than it was under Baker Mayfield.
Dynasty leaguers are drafting Chubb far below his RB12 finish in 2021, and seemingly ignoring the potential for him to escape the clutches of Kareem Hunt in the near future. Chubb has averaged about three fantasy points more per game in contests without Hunt the last three years. Hunt is entering a contract year, but the Browns could actually save $6 million on the cap by letting him go via release or trade.
This may not seem necessary given that Cleveland is currently $31 million UNDER in 2021, but they have huge extensions kicking in for both Watson and Myles Garrett that will make every last penny count in rollover money. We could see a huge boost in value for Chubb -- who is just 26 and has already been extended as well -- before any football is played.
Second-Year WRs
There are four players, in particular, we recommend you go and get as soon as possible: Rashod Bateman (ETR WR16, ADP WR24), Devonta Smith (18/26), Amon-Ra St. Brown (24/30), and Kadarius Toney (30/44). There are particular reasons to buy each of them, but in a general sense, these wideouts have simply gone overlooked in favor of 2022 rookies. This is a common occurrence in dynasty, but you should not be so quick to dismiss the rookie seasons (and future prospects) of these four ascending potential stars.
Bateman is a great example of a player who has already been pushed up the board some -- but still hasn't been pushed up enough. He is the clear WR1 for the Ravens after trading away Marquise Brown, and he had a fantastic prospect profile. He was a young and productive three-year prospect, which is exactly what we want to target. Now that he is going to get a big volume boost, we want to be aggressive before the NFL production comes.
Smith is seeing some pull-back after the Eagles acquired A.J. Brown, but we aren't totally sure that is warranted. Brown adds target competition, but he should also raise the base pass rate for Philly. There is also some chance that Hurts either improves enough as a passer to support this attack, or the team moves on from him and acquires one of the elite passers in the 2023 class. The Eagles have an extra first-round pick already from the Saints, which will put them in the driver's seat as multiple teams vie to come up. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Philadelphia is a pass-first offense sooner rather than later.
St. Brown continues to see his late-season surge in production dismissed by dynasty leaguers. Yes, players such as T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift were injured, but a 51/560/5 line over his final six games is impressive regardless of the competition. With the addition of Jameson Williams in the first round, St. Brown has struggled to rise up draft boards. We still prefer the player likely to see a bulk of short to intermediate targets and rack up PPR production. St. Brown is another three-year prospect who broke out at the collegiate level, despite being selected in the fourth round of the NFL Draft.
Toney didn't play a ton of football as a rookie, but what we saw of him was special. His 10-catch,189-yard game against Dallas represented the eighth-most receiving yards by a rookie in a game since 2000. The six players ahead of him: Ja'Marr Chase (twice), Justin Blackmon, Anquan Boldin, Mike Evans, Rod Gardner, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Toney was a first-round pick just last year, but he has slipped in drafts after it was reported the team was already looking to deal him. However, Toney is in camp now and everything seems to be fine (for now). His stock is only going to go up from here, and his acquisition cost is by far the cheapest of this group of players.
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