On Friday, Craig Race Architecture hosted its annual holiday dinner at Barberian's Steak House. It was a great evening and I really appreciate the invite, especially considering that we're not yet clients. Thank you, Craig. I'm also not sure I had ever been to Barberian's before. That probably makes me a bad Torontonian. Because of their work and because of the current market, the dinner has also become a kind of gathering for missing middle developers. I felt like the odd one out not having a sixplex + laneway suite built or under construction. What's interesting about the current environment is that it's pushing developers — both big and small — towards missing middle housing. Smaller developers are doing it because the barriers to entry are lower, and meaningful progress has been made on improving the development economics (the no HST and development charges are crucial). And bigger developers are doing it because larger projects simply don't work right now, or the absorption risk is perceived as too great. But here's the thing: as soon as the market turns, there's once again going to be a natural inclination to scale up. On Friday, I heard many developers say, "I'm dealing with the same amount of bullshit that I used to deal with on my larger projects." For example, I was told of an instance where a client wanted to keep the facade of their house and build a sixplex behind it. The facade had heritage and sentimental value. But because the removal of HST on rental housing only applies to new construction, keeping the facade would have made it a renovation. And so they had no choice but to demolish everything. (Of course, developers will also play the opposite game and keep one wall so as to not be deemed new construction in other instances.) What all of this stuff means is that as soon as the conditions allow for it, developers are going to want to increase their return on bullshit. In the meantime, though, this city has an industry chomping at the bit to build more missing middle housing. We should do everything we can to harness that.
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